Surviving Tough Times
19 of 77· 18 sepLooks like Hard Times are here. They won’t be ending anytime soon – if I had to guess I’d say 5 years + at this point.
The mainstream media has been feeding us the bad news in small chunks – and doing a pretty bad job of analysing the situation IMHO. The present losses are between 500 and 600 Billion Dollars. According to some the total losses could reach 2 Trillion Dollars (yes you read that correctly). I think there’s a pretty good chance the US Banking system will collapse completely – the effects will be Global.
The Airline industry is not just facing high fuel prices but a Global recession. Expect demand for air travel to drop off dramatically next year.
Some important things to remember:-
• No Airline is “too big to fail”. When the money runs out the doors will close.
• This will affect everybody (even Airlines that survive will have to cut back dramatically).
• There is nothing you can do about it – you’re just along for the ride!
So with this in mind I thought it might be useful to list some survival strategies for those of us employed in the industry.
I hope others will also offer their thoughts/tips.
Make yourself marketable
This is pretty simple in theory but harder in practice. Some Type Ratings are better than others. Too many people focus on “bigger is better”. This is flawed thinking as there are less large aircraft in service vs. A3XX/737 family.
Going onto A3XX/737 may also allow you to upgrade to Commander faster. Right rating + Command hours = marketability. Last time I checked the Flightjobs website there were twice as many vacancies for Commanders as there were for F/O’s.
Pay down your debt
This increases your disposable income (lower payments) which you can use for other things (see below). Tax benefits are over-rated IMHO. Debt is still debt – you’ll have to pay it off at some point. You want to avoid the situation where losing your job will ruin you financially (cant meet the payments). Future jobs will be overseas – you’ll lose any tax benefits at this point. Tax free salary + paying off debts will dramatically improve your financial position.
Delay buying “big ticket” items
Not much point buying a house/car/boat/TV etc. at the moment when they will all be cheaper in the future. We’re already seeing a “property bust” in the UK and Spain – I don’t doubt it will spread to the rest of the EU. The future is frugality. I think conspicuous consumption will no longer be socially acceptable.
Create a financial buffer
Make a monthly budget. Now cut this down to the minimum you need to survive and multiply this by 24. Have this money in short term safe investments or Gold/Silver so you can access it if needed. If you lose your job you will at least be able to survive. This should be mandatory – but I’ll bet very few of us are in this position.
Job Hopping
Bad idea. Best option IMHO is to stay put and hope you can ride this out. It’s LIFO (Last In First Out) at most companies so the last place to be right now is at the bottom of anyone’s list. Start-ups are a bad idea as well – stay clear unless there is no other option.
Buying a Type Rating
Another bad idea IMHO. Look what happened at the EAG where people paid them for a rating and the company went bankrupt. No job/no rating/no money – talk about getting screwed!
Bond
Be careful. Make sure you have something on paper about what happens if you get laid off or the Airline goes under. I know of one case where the company was deliberately kept alive until everyone with a bond quit – then it went under and people had to pay.
Second Career
Perhaps an option until things improve. Stay or go? Tough choice either way.
One final thought:-
If you do lose your job then keep things in perspective. It’s not the end of the world – it’s just a job. I’ve had colleagues tell me they’ve had sleepless nights over the state of their Airline. I always sleep well – I don’t waste my time worrying about things that I have no control over.
On a positive note:-
Every time that I’ve lost my job I have always been able to improve my financial position or further my career.
30 REACTIESThe mainstream media has been feeding us the bad news in small chunks – and doing a pretty bad job of analysing the situation IMHO. The present losses are between 500 and 600 Billion Dollars. According to some the total losses could reach 2 Trillion Dollars (yes you read that correctly). I think there’s a pretty good chance the US Banking system will collapse completely – the effects will be Global.
The Airline industry is not just facing high fuel prices but a Global recession. Expect demand for air travel to drop off dramatically next year.
Some important things to remember:-
• No Airline is “too big to fail”. When the money runs out the doors will close.
• This will affect everybody (even Airlines that survive will have to cut back dramatically).
• There is nothing you can do about it – you’re just along for the ride!
So with this in mind I thought it might be useful to list some survival strategies for those of us employed in the industry.
I hope others will also offer their thoughts/tips.
Make yourself marketable
This is pretty simple in theory but harder in practice. Some Type Ratings are better than others. Too many people focus on “bigger is better”. This is flawed thinking as there are less large aircraft in service vs. A3XX/737 family.
Going onto A3XX/737 may also allow you to upgrade to Commander faster. Right rating + Command hours = marketability. Last time I checked the Flightjobs website there were twice as many vacancies for Commanders as there were for F/O’s.
Pay down your debt
This increases your disposable income (lower payments) which you can use for other things (see below). Tax benefits are over-rated IMHO. Debt is still debt – you’ll have to pay it off at some point. You want to avoid the situation where losing your job will ruin you financially (cant meet the payments). Future jobs will be overseas – you’ll lose any tax benefits at this point. Tax free salary + paying off debts will dramatically improve your financial position.
Delay buying “big ticket” items
Not much point buying a house/car/boat/TV etc. at the moment when they will all be cheaper in the future. We’re already seeing a “property bust” in the UK and Spain – I don’t doubt it will spread to the rest of the EU. The future is frugality. I think conspicuous consumption will no longer be socially acceptable.
Create a financial buffer
Make a monthly budget. Now cut this down to the minimum you need to survive and multiply this by 24. Have this money in short term safe investments or Gold/Silver so you can access it if needed. If you lose your job you will at least be able to survive. This should be mandatory – but I’ll bet very few of us are in this position.
Job Hopping
Bad idea. Best option IMHO is to stay put and hope you can ride this out. It’s LIFO (Last In First Out) at most companies so the last place to be right now is at the bottom of anyone’s list. Start-ups are a bad idea as well – stay clear unless there is no other option.
Buying a Type Rating
Another bad idea IMHO. Look what happened at the EAG where people paid them for a rating and the company went bankrupt. No job/no rating/no money – talk about getting screwed!
Bond
Be careful. Make sure you have something on paper about what happens if you get laid off or the Airline goes under. I know of one case where the company was deliberately kept alive until everyone with a bond quit – then it went under and people had to pay.
Second Career
Perhaps an option until things improve. Stay or go? Tough choice either way.
One final thought:-
If you do lose your job then keep things in perspective. It’s not the end of the world – it’s just a job. I’ve had colleagues tell me they’ve had sleepless nights over the state of their Airline. I always sleep well – I don’t waste my time worrying about things that I have no control over.
On a positive note:-
Every time that I’ve lost my job I have always been able to improve my financial position or further my career.
Overload· 18 sepExcellent post!
18 sep
Ditched· 18 sep19 of 77, thanx for sharing. This makes a lot more sense than the what we have seen from the media over the past year.
Any thoughts on a particular type of flying (cargo/corporate/low-cost/regional/legacy) or geographical area where things will be most "stable", job-wise??
My personal thoughts are that we'll see some changes in the job of a pilot. Like I've mentioned in this thread we might see a dramatic increase in the "production" we'll have to put up as pilots. Something similiar happend in the shipping industry in '72 -'75 following the oil crisis. You would see the number of crewmembers reduce by over 50% in just a few years. Now a days a 15 man crew does the work of a 40 man crew would do on a similiar sized vessel. The materials and means available to get the job done are now down to the bare minimum and 14 -16 our working days are standard.
On longhaul flying we might see a one man cockpit in a more or less scheduled watch system. Under the pressure of the financially struggling airlines duty-rest requirements will be stretched to the limit. Something to wish for? Not in my opinion! For the mid-career guys the changes will be most painfull. The pilots starting 5 years from now will simply don't know any better, like for me when I became a sailor 6 years ago, and I still liked the job very much.
Greetz
Ditched
Any thoughts on a particular type of flying (cargo/corporate/low-cost/regional/legacy) or geographical area where things will be most "stable", job-wise??
My personal thoughts are that we'll see some changes in the job of a pilot. Like I've mentioned in this thread we might see a dramatic increase in the "production" we'll have to put up as pilots. Something similiar happend in the shipping industry in '72 -'75 following the oil crisis. You would see the number of crewmembers reduce by over 50% in just a few years. Now a days a 15 man crew does the work of a 40 man crew would do on a similiar sized vessel. The materials and means available to get the job done are now down to the bare minimum and 14 -16 our working days are standard.
On longhaul flying we might see a one man cockpit in a more or less scheduled watch system. Under the pressure of the financially struggling airlines duty-rest requirements will be stretched to the limit. Something to wish for? Not in my opinion! For the mid-career guys the changes will be most painfull. The pilots starting 5 years from now will simply don't know any better, like for me when I became a sailor 6 years ago, and I still liked the job very much.
Greetz
Ditched
18 sep
19 of 77· 18 sepDitched schreef:Any thoughts on a particular type of flying (cargo/corporate/low-cost/regional/legacy) or geographical area where things will be most "stable", job-wise??
It's going to affect all areas of the Industry. Your guess is as good as mine as to who will survive and go under.
Companies with large cash reserves may be able to hang on until things improve.
My personal thoughts are that we'll see some changes in the job of a pilot.
Intersting comparison with the shipping industry. We're already working 14-16 hour days so I can't see that increasing.
I do expect terms and conditions to decrease due to the law of supply and demand. Going to be a lot of Pilots looking for only a limited number of jobs.
18 sep
metrodriver· 18 sep19,
I am already caught up in this whole mess. the company I was flying for closed the doors, and it is extremely hard to find something with a decent pay here in the US. I was very close to upgrading (2 ahead of me) and decided to stay on the DC10 2 years ago, since the chance of captaincy was going to be quicker than on the MD11. Difference: on the -10 we have a SIC typerating, on the -11 a PIC typerating for f/o's. Hardly any difference (taxing in the sim and a single engine landing), but now a lot of the asian carriers are balking at that. So I should have gone to the -11 and get the type, and glass experience.
I am already caught up in this whole mess. the company I was flying for closed the doors, and it is extremely hard to find something with a decent pay here in the US. I was very close to upgrading (2 ahead of me) and decided to stay on the DC10 2 years ago, since the chance of captaincy was going to be quicker than on the MD11. Difference: on the -10 we have a SIC typerating, on the -11 a PIC typerating for f/o's. Hardly any difference (taxing in the sim and a single engine landing), but now a lot of the asian carriers are balking at that. So I should have gone to the -11 and get the type, and glass experience.
18 sep
Ditched· 18 sep19 of 77 schreef:It's going to affect all areas of the Industry. Your guess is as good as mine as to who will survive and go under.
My guess would be that in Europe we'll see a further expansion of low-cost airlines (FR, EZ) and, on a more moderate scale, the Bizzjet Operators / Air Taxis. Getting into a situation of cheap, mass "public transport" on one side and highly personalised transport on the other with nothing in between at the expense of the Regionals... but still...it's a guess...
Don't know about the cargo airlines, the shipping-industry is just getting over a recent rescession, and is booming again. Taking already about 90% of all cargo transport worldwide. The technological development (a single Marine Diesel Engine can now produce over a MEGA Watt of propulsion power) led to the next generation container ships with such a scale increase that sea transport is getting very cheap. We might see a similiar scale increase in Aviation once the A380 Freighter version becomes available. Don't know if there are companies around that can affort them, maybe FedEx, but they cancelled their orders.
19 of 77 schreef: We're already working 14-16 hour days so I can't see that increasing.
True, but the 100h flight duty time / 28 days and 900h / year, could be stretched.
19 of 77 schreef:I do expect terms and conditions to decrease due to the law of supply and demand. Going to be a lot of Pilots looking for only a limited number of jobs.
I think that somwhere in the back of our minds we (I mean low-time guys like myself) should be getting prepared/expect to do with a lot less. Paying for the TQ is almost normal (hate to say it), initial salaries will be getting even lower if the schools keep putting out so many low time pilots on a slimming market.
Bad news metrodriver, all de best!
Ditched
18 sep
19 of 77· 18 sepmetrodriver schreef:19,
I am already caught up in this whole mess. the company I was flying for closed the doors, and it is extremely hard to find something with a decent pay here in the US. I was very close to upgrading (2 ahead of me) and decided to stay on the DC10 2 years ago, since the chance of captaincy was going to be quicker than on the MD11. Difference: on the -10 we have a SIC typerating, on the -11 a PIC typerating for f/o's. Hardly any difference (taxing in the sim and a single engine landing), but now a lot of the asian carriers are balking at that. So I should have gone to the -11 and get the type, and glass experience.
Sorry to hear about this - sounded like an interesting operation.
One suggestion - can you do the PIC rating on a Simulator? Perhaps that plus letters from your Chief Pilot and/or FAA explaining what you did will help.
If the aircraft are going to be operated by another carrier perhaps this will also become an option for you.
Good luck.
18 sep
Jetcap· 19 sepCargo would be the most stable of all operations for the years to come.
I totally agree with the job hopping, stay put, get seniority and ride it out. I just had 2 of my pilots decide that they wanted to go "airline", thinking more money, better schedule and QoL. Now both of em are out of a job, each about 1 week in groundschool (2 diiferent companies) before being let go. They came running back to me, but I told them that I warned them over and over again and I was not hiring at this point.
But that is the problem nowadays with many many of the younger pilots or wannabees. They all know it better and don't want to listen to the ones with the experience, not just in aviation. And yes, we were young once too and probably partied too much, didn't listen much to them "old" people. But the ones that succeeded in this industry got to listen very quickly to the experienced people (sounds better then the "old" ones:angel:)
I will give a recent example.
I got offered a job flying a G450/ 550 (they have a few other type airplanes to) while being trained to be the new Director of Operations, starting out at $180.000 a year + some benefits and bonuses and after 1 year of service I would become full DO and make $250.000 + same benefits and bonuses.
Sounds very attractive, even though I thought and still think that I would have been a little out of my comfort zone (but I would have gotten used to it). Talked to the wife, since moving would have been required and she has a very good job herself. She told me that if I wasn't sure (the comfort zone thingie), why do it?
Money, sure it was good, but I ain't doing bad right now and am in my comfort zone with work, FAA and friends.
G450/ 550, sure they are great toys to go fly with (still not a Falcon though:rolleyes:)and you go to very nice destinations, but I have been to most of em and it all becomes a blur after doing it a few times.
I decided to turn them down, money isn't everything, being happy with what you are doing is.
2 Months later, the owner of the G450/ 550 sold his company and airplanes, now the company still exist, flying King Air 200 and 350 locally. The new DO got a $160.000 pay cut, after moving his whole family down.
Moral of the story. The grass is always greener on some other side, but it can turn brown very very quickly:eek:
I totally agree with the job hopping, stay put, get seniority and ride it out. I just had 2 of my pilots decide that they wanted to go "airline", thinking more money, better schedule and QoL. Now both of em are out of a job, each about 1 week in groundschool (2 diiferent companies) before being let go. They came running back to me, but I told them that I warned them over and over again and I was not hiring at this point.
But that is the problem nowadays with many many of the younger pilots or wannabees. They all know it better and don't want to listen to the ones with the experience, not just in aviation. And yes, we were young once too and probably partied too much, didn't listen much to them "old" people. But the ones that succeeded in this industry got to listen very quickly to the experienced people (sounds better then the "old" ones:angel:)
I will give a recent example.
I got offered a job flying a G450/ 550 (they have a few other type airplanes to) while being trained to be the new Director of Operations, starting out at $180.000 a year + some benefits and bonuses and after 1 year of service I would become full DO and make $250.000 + same benefits and bonuses.
Sounds very attractive, even though I thought and still think that I would have been a little out of my comfort zone (but I would have gotten used to it). Talked to the wife, since moving would have been required and she has a very good job herself. She told me that if I wasn't sure (the comfort zone thingie), why do it?
Money, sure it was good, but I ain't doing bad right now and am in my comfort zone with work, FAA and friends.
G450/ 550, sure they are great toys to go fly with (still not a Falcon though:rolleyes:)and you go to very nice destinations, but I have been to most of em and it all becomes a blur after doing it a few times.
I decided to turn them down, money isn't everything, being happy with what you are doing is.
2 Months later, the owner of the G450/ 550 sold his company and airplanes, now the company still exist, flying King Air 200 and 350 locally. The new DO got a $160.000 pay cut, after moving his whole family down.
Moral of the story. The grass is always greener on some other side, but it can turn brown very very quickly:eek:
19 sep
Julien· 19 sep
Excellent post 19of77!
I got a question for the Dutch people who're involved in the American aviation industry. On this board I think there are a dozen people who are flying in the U.S. Whether it's for an airline, regional, corporate or freightdog, that has nothing to do it. What I'm wondering about is how people will pay their debt. The whole economy in America is in crisis and the dollar isn't much worth. How is it possible for Europeans in the U.S to even pay their study debt and may be even furloughed too!
I got a question for the Dutch people who're involved in the American aviation industry. On this board I think there are a dozen people who are flying in the U.S. Whether it's for an airline, regional, corporate or freightdog, that has nothing to do it. What I'm wondering about is how people will pay their debt. The whole economy in America is in crisis and the dollar isn't much worth. How is it possible for Europeans in the U.S to even pay their study debt and may be even furloughed too!
19 sep
Joe Bar· 19 sepCan we get an English, Spanish, Italian, Chinese, Japanese, German, French forum.
19 sep
Jetcap· 19 sepJulien schreef:Excellent post 19of77!
I got a question for the Dutch people who're involved in the American aviation industry. On this board I think there are a dozen people who are flying in the U.S. Whether it's for an airline, regional, corporate or freightdog, that has nothing to do it. What I'm wondering about is how people will pay their debt. The whole economy in America is in crisis and the dollar isn't much worth. How is it possible for Europeans in the U.S to even pay their study debt and may be even furloughed too!
I paid my stuff way back (1992) when, I only paid a little under $30,000 to get my Private, Comm, Instrument, ME, CFI, CFII, MEI and MEII. Also included in this was housing and $75 a week food allowance. I had a bicycle and that was about it.
I worked a little bit on the side (was not allowed to in accordance with my VISA). Worked hard the first few years to pay of what debt I had, luckily I didn't own anything but a little car after I actually started working.
19 sep
Loko· 19 sep
1977,
You do have valid points there. I guess only time will tell the outcome of the global crisis. I like that you mentioned a plan B there.
Perhaps overlooked by many but it is smart -if not essential- to actually have a plan B. Many pilots are already educated otherwise so in case their plan B becomes effective they do have a distinct advantage. Other pilots will have more difficulties finding a revenue generating day occupation. For those people it could be interesting to start learning about financial investments in general and from there specialize further on even in a bear market. Although this will be a rough and long road, it still beats working at a supermarket in ones next career. Robert Kiyosaki wrote his story 'Rich Dad, poor Dad' but it might have been called 'Rich Pilot, poor Pilot'. Multiple streams of income is key here and 'Jetcaps' post proves why.
I sincerely hope no one will get into these kind of extremes but these are just my thoughts for what they're worth.
You do have valid points there. I guess only time will tell the outcome of the global crisis. I like that you mentioned a plan B there.
Perhaps overlooked by many but it is smart -if not essential- to actually have a plan B. Many pilots are already educated otherwise so in case their plan B becomes effective they do have a distinct advantage. Other pilots will have more difficulties finding a revenue generating day occupation. For those people it could be interesting to start learning about financial investments in general and from there specialize further on even in a bear market. Although this will be a rough and long road, it still beats working at a supermarket in ones next career. Robert Kiyosaki wrote his story 'Rich Dad, poor Dad' but it might have been called 'Rich Pilot, poor Pilot'. Multiple streams of income is key here and 'Jetcaps' post proves why.
I sincerely hope no one will get into these kind of extremes but these are just my thoughts for what they're worth.
19 sep
Buzzer· 19 sepDe post van 19 77 moet een sticky worden voor alle wannabe's die denken dat het allemaal rozegeur en maneschijn is in de luchtvaart....
19 sep
Jetcap· 19 sepIs het toch ook :biertje:
In een paar jaar gezagvoerder op de 787 bij KLM, belasting onderduikend in een ander land wonen. Een vrouw thuis met de kindertjes, stewardessen in het hotel, iedereens held. Alle speultjes die je maar kan bedenken en natuurlijk maar 7 dagen of misschien 8 per maand werken en de rest lekker spelen. En dit allemaal lekker in de schoot krijgen geworpen omdat je gewoon jij bent:eek:
Ach, was ik maar weer een wannabee:snore::stapelge:
In een paar jaar gezagvoerder op de 787 bij KLM, belasting onderduikend in een ander land wonen. Een vrouw thuis met de kindertjes, stewardessen in het hotel, iedereens held. Alle speultjes die je maar kan bedenken en natuurlijk maar 7 dagen of misschien 8 per maand werken en de rest lekker spelen. En dit allemaal lekker in de schoot krijgen geworpen omdat je gewoon jij bent:eek:
Ach, was ik maar weer een wannabee:snore::stapelge:
19 sep
Marshall· 20 sepNice post 19 of 77!
Absolutely agree with your views...
Absolutely agree with your views...
20 sep
Jetcap· 20 sepJulien schreef:The whole economy in America is in crisis and the dollar isn't much worth.En de rest van de wereld doet het allemaal zoveel beter:confused: Als dingen slecht gaan in USA gaat het slecht in de rest van de wereld, als het goed gaat doet de rest van de wereld het ook goed. Vraag me af waarom:duh:
Amerika afkraken is altijd al iets geweest dat de rest van de wereld doet, jaloezie zeer waarschijnlijk. Verbazingwekkend is dat de Fransen altijd vooraan staan (zelfs de geïmporteerde Fransen):1855:
20 sep
Koning Lucht· 20 sepJetcap, ik geloof niet dat dit jaloezie is of zo, meer een constatering. Feit blijft wel, dat de 'oorzaak' van deze crisis in de States te vinden is geweest.
20 sep
Q-nimbus· 20 sepGoede post (zoals altijd).
We zullen zien hoe het allemaal afloopt. De VS gaan/zijn goed naar de klote, maar voorlopig houden we ons hier in Europa goed (behalve de UK dan, maar die mist toch niemand). Dat is denk ik een heel erg goede ontwikkeling, al moeten we natuurlijk maar zien of deze lijn door blijft gaan.
We zullen zien hoe het allemaal afloopt. De VS gaan/zijn goed naar de klote, maar voorlopig houden we ons hier in Europa goed (behalve de UK dan, maar die mist toch niemand). Dat is denk ik een heel erg goede ontwikkeling, al moeten we natuurlijk maar zien of deze lijn door blijft gaan.
20 sep
Marshall· 20 sepAlleen in de States en haar kleine "dochter" de UK is de financiele markt flink onder druk komen te staan omdat bleek dat een mooie socialistische gedachte (iedereen moet een huis kunnen bezitten) niet blijkt te werken in pure kapitalistische economie...
Dus de bel is gesprongen, gelukkig zijn er nog genoeg (kapitalistische) landen waar niet iedereen zomaar een (te hoge) hypotheek kan krijgen!
Het zal andere landen dan de VS en de UK dus absoluut niet zo erg raken! Uiteraard worden diverse economieen wel wat meegesleurd doordat de globalisering steeds overheersender wordt. Mooi voorbeeld is de dreiging op de NL beursen, gevolgs door de record stijging afgelopen vrijdag...
En als je kan, absoluut extra aflossen! Maar ik ben mijn geluk weer eens op de beursen aan het testen en stel het extra aflossen weer even uit...
Dus de bel is gesprongen, gelukkig zijn er nog genoeg (kapitalistische) landen waar niet iedereen zomaar een (te hoge) hypotheek kan krijgen!
Het zal andere landen dan de VS en de UK dus absoluut niet zo erg raken! Uiteraard worden diverse economieen wel wat meegesleurd doordat de globalisering steeds overheersender wordt. Mooi voorbeeld is de dreiging op de NL beursen, gevolgs door de record stijging afgelopen vrijdag...
En als je kan, absoluut extra aflossen! Maar ik ben mijn geluk weer eens op de beursen aan het testen en stel het extra aflossen weer even uit...
20 sep
Buzzer· 20 sepDus de bel is gesprongen, gelukkig zijn er nog genoeg (kapitalistische) landen waar niet iedereen zomaar een (te hoge) hypotheek kan krijgen!
Het was / is moelijker hier in de UK een hypotheek te krijgen dan in NL waar een 125% LTV hypotheek de norm is..
In de UK was een 90-95 bijna het max... nu zal dat snel terugvallen naar 75-80%... Ga jij maar ff een 25% deposit sparen
20 sep
Q-nimbus· 21 sepMarshall schreef:En als je kan, absoluut extra aflossen! Maar ik ben mijn geluk weer eens op de beursen aan het testen en stel het extra aflossen weer even uit...
Aan de andere kant, je eerste jaren als vlieger zijn het mooist! Ik zou zeker niet krom gaan liggen (en dat doe ik dus ook niet), zodat ik als ik de 30 ben gepasseerd de vruchten kan gaan plukken. Aflossen is goed, maar zorg dat je geniet!
21 sep
19 of 77· 5 oktGetting Worse Every Day
Getting Worse Every Day
I think it's obvious now that this is a Global problem - going to get much worse - and it will affect everyone.
Fact:- A lot of Banks are insolvent.
I expect the Euro to take a beating in the next few weeks vs. the Dollar. Good news for those of us with incomes in Dollars and bills in Euros (should help Sterling for those of you in the UK).
Getting Worse Every Day
Marshall schreef:Het zal andere landen dan de VS en de UK dus absoluut niet zo erg raken! Uiteraard worden diverse economieen wel wat meegesleurd doordat de globalisering steeds overheersender wordt. Mooi voorbeeld is de dreiging op de NL beursen, gevolgs door de record stijging afgelopen vrijdag...
I think it's obvious now that this is a Global problem - going to get much worse - and it will affect everyone.
Fact:- A lot of Banks are insolvent.
I expect the Euro to take a beating in the next few weeks vs. the Dollar. Good news for those of us with incomes in Dollars and bills in Euros (should help Sterling for those of you in the UK).
5 okt
Flash2002· 5 okt
Waarom specifiek de euro 19 of 77?
5 okt
Pantryman· 5 okt
Het probleem is ook dat de problemen niet worden opgelost maar dat er eerder een pleister op een wond word gedaan die niet is schoongemaakt:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10057618-38.html?tag=rtcol;pop
Amerika is bankroet. Het is nu zo dat door de injectie er een kleine opleving is, maar er is nog veel meer nodig om deze malaise te herstellen. Meer injectie van dollars leid tot inflatie met alle gevolgen van dien.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Foreign_Holders_of_United_States_Treasury_Securities-percent_share.gif
Nederland heeft zoals in de grafiek hierboven te zien een relatief lage investering in securities in de VS en zelfs de president van de Nederlandse Bank is het niet eens met de manier waarop de amerikaanse regering nu probeert om dit op te lossen.
Wat de dollar betreft, de hyperinflatie (nieuw geld drukken zonder economische backup als goud en andere metalen) is een echte dreiging en ik vraag me echt af wat de lange termijn koers zal doen. Ik krijg in dollars betaald en naast mijn eigen bedrijfsinkomsten heb ik een contract met een bedrijf dat eigendom is van een ander bedrijf in Monaco. Misschien tijd om voorlopig de helft in Euros te eisen en de andere helf in Dollars om de fluctuaties te dempen...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGlmidTTIKg
Ik sprak onlangs met iemand die een interrestante lange-termijn visie had voor de luchtvaart: omdat het zo'n belangrijk onderdeel is van deze 'wereld' zei hij dat het naar een prioriteitsregeling zou kunnen gaan waaronder het voor de luchtvaart (tot de olie op is over 50 jaar) mogelijk blijft om olie te kunnen consumeren tegen redelijke condities en dat autoproducenten en daardoor automobilisten, indirect gedwongen door de economie en de hoge prijs van olie, over zullen moeten stappen op alternatieve brandstoffen. Hier in de VS zie je steeds vaker commercials van bijvoorbeeld BP over diversiteit van brandstof waarbij ze zich willen profileren als pionier op het gebied van alternatieven voor benzine (olie). Jammer genoeg worden er dan nog wel wat talking points ingesneakt over de beschikbaarheid van 'olie' op Amerikaans grondgebied, maar dat is een andere ethische kwestie.
Ik duim voor de vliegers in Europa en hoop dat er geen ontslaggolf komt zoals hier in de VS, maar ik betwijfel het ten zeerste.
Succes
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10057618-38.html?tag=rtcol;pop
Amerika is bankroet. Het is nu zo dat door de injectie er een kleine opleving is, maar er is nog veel meer nodig om deze malaise te herstellen. Meer injectie van dollars leid tot inflatie met alle gevolgen van dien.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Foreign_Holders_of_United_States_Treasury_Securities-percent_share.gif
Nederland heeft zoals in de grafiek hierboven te zien een relatief lage investering in securities in de VS en zelfs de president van de Nederlandse Bank is het niet eens met de manier waarop de amerikaanse regering nu probeert om dit op te lossen.
Wat de dollar betreft, de hyperinflatie (nieuw geld drukken zonder economische backup als goud en andere metalen) is een echte dreiging en ik vraag me echt af wat de lange termijn koers zal doen. Ik krijg in dollars betaald en naast mijn eigen bedrijfsinkomsten heb ik een contract met een bedrijf dat eigendom is van een ander bedrijf in Monaco. Misschien tijd om voorlopig de helft in Euros te eisen en de andere helf in Dollars om de fluctuaties te dempen...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGlmidTTIKg
Ik sprak onlangs met iemand die een interrestante lange-termijn visie had voor de luchtvaart: omdat het zo'n belangrijk onderdeel is van deze 'wereld' zei hij dat het naar een prioriteitsregeling zou kunnen gaan waaronder het voor de luchtvaart (tot de olie op is over 50 jaar) mogelijk blijft om olie te kunnen consumeren tegen redelijke condities en dat autoproducenten en daardoor automobilisten, indirect gedwongen door de economie en de hoge prijs van olie, over zullen moeten stappen op alternatieve brandstoffen. Hier in de VS zie je steeds vaker commercials van bijvoorbeeld BP over diversiteit van brandstof waarbij ze zich willen profileren als pionier op het gebied van alternatieven voor benzine (olie). Jammer genoeg worden er dan nog wel wat talking points ingesneakt over de beschikbaarheid van 'olie' op Amerikaans grondgebied, maar dat is een andere ethische kwestie.
Ik duim voor de vliegers in Europa en hoop dat er geen ontslaggolf komt zoals hier in de VS, maar ik betwijfel het ten zeerste.
Succes
5 okt
Eikie· 5 okt
Flash2002 schreef:Waarom specifiek de euro 19 of 77?
Ik denk dat hij bedoelt dat het helpt voor de mensen die hun loon in "goedkope" dollars krijgen, maar hun lasten in de dure euro moeten betalen. Voor hen is een stijging van de dollar een welkom verschijnsel...
5 okt
Flash2002· 5 okt
Voor mij ook want dollar omhoog betekent benzine omlaag!!!
5 okt
JazzFlight· 5 oktVery interesting topic and thank you 19 of 77 for the tips! I came across this article. Caught my attention when visiting the Airwork homepage.
NEway,...there seems to be an Australian expert who sees things differently. I wonder what you guys think of this. It all seems so contradictory.
Here it is:
Demand for Pilots will Increase, Says Expert
MUSCAT — An unprecedented boom in the global aviation industry and the resulting huge demand for pilots means training to be a pilot now offers a more stable career than many academic disciplines, according to an Australian expert.
Phil Sweeney said the aviation sector had weathered the post 9/11 storm and was making huge advances. “India and China need 5,000 additional pilots every year for the next three to five years — we have never seen growth like this in aviation,” Sweeney, from the Australian Wings Academy (AWA), said addressing a seminar here recently.
The seminar, titled ‘Pilot Training’ was hosted by GlobalEdu and AWA.
Comparing attending a pilot school with that of enrolling at university, Sweeney pointed out that students only had to study for one year to hold a commercial pilot’s licence and a first job with an average monthly salary of $4,000, compared to spending four years at university and then working for an average pay of $1,800 per month.
Highlighting the huge orders placed by many regional airlines at an air show earlier this year, he said with hundreds of new aircraft destined for the Gulf, newly qualified pilots would not have any problems finding employment in or next to their home country. “Each aircraft,” Sweeney noted, “needs six to eight sets of crew — so one plane requires 12-16 pilots to keep it constantly in the air. Multiply each of these big orders in the region by 12 or 16 and you will see there is certainly are a lot of pilots needed in the Middle East.”
NEway,...there seems to be an Australian expert who sees things differently. I wonder what you guys think of this. It all seems so contradictory.
Here it is:
Demand for Pilots will Increase, Says Expert
MUSCAT — An unprecedented boom in the global aviation industry and the resulting huge demand for pilots means training to be a pilot now offers a more stable career than many academic disciplines, according to an Australian expert.
Phil Sweeney said the aviation sector had weathered the post 9/11 storm and was making huge advances. “India and China need 5,000 additional pilots every year for the next three to five years — we have never seen growth like this in aviation,” Sweeney, from the Australian Wings Academy (AWA), said addressing a seminar here recently.
The seminar, titled ‘Pilot Training’ was hosted by GlobalEdu and AWA.
Comparing attending a pilot school with that of enrolling at university, Sweeney pointed out that students only had to study for one year to hold a commercial pilot’s licence and a first job with an average monthly salary of $4,000, compared to spending four years at university and then working for an average pay of $1,800 per month.
Highlighting the huge orders placed by many regional airlines at an air show earlier this year, he said with hundreds of new aircraft destined for the Gulf, newly qualified pilots would not have any problems finding employment in or next to their home country. “Each aircraft,” Sweeney noted, “needs six to eight sets of crew — so one plane requires 12-16 pilots to keep it constantly in the air. Multiply each of these big orders in the region by 12 or 16 and you will see there is certainly are a lot of pilots needed in the Middle East.”
5 okt
CE550B· 5 oktHmm, kweet niet waneer deze meneer zijn statements heeft gemaakt maar het lijkt of dit voor afgelopen september was.
De "9/11 storm" waar hij het overheeft is wezelijk anders dan waar we nu op afstevenen. (onzekere markt, fluctuerende olie prijzen, consumenten die oa hun vastgoed waarde zien kelderen). Die fenomenale groei in onze sector is er echt wel uit voor het komend jaar.
Ook het punt van een "maar" 1 jarige opleiding met een startsalaris van $4000p/m vind ik nogal kort door de bocht!
Feit blijft dat wij (NJE) onze aannamens en onze cadetscheme tijdelijk hebben stopgezet. Allemaal begrijpelijk vanuit een business oogpunt. Iedereen ff geduld dus voor de komende tijd!
De "9/11 storm" waar hij het overheeft is wezelijk anders dan waar we nu op afstevenen. (onzekere markt, fluctuerende olie prijzen, consumenten die oa hun vastgoed waarde zien kelderen). Die fenomenale groei in onze sector is er echt wel uit voor het komend jaar.
Ook het punt van een "maar" 1 jarige opleiding met een startsalaris van $4000p/m vind ik nogal kort door de bocht!
Feit blijft dat wij (NJE) onze aannamens en onze cadetscheme tijdelijk hebben stopgezet. Allemaal begrijpelijk vanuit een business oogpunt. Iedereen ff geduld dus voor de komende tijd!
5 okt
19 of 77· 6 oktFlash2002 schreef:Waarom specifiek de euro 19 of 77?
Eikie schreef:Ik denk dat hij bedoelt dat het helpt voor de mensen die hun loon in "goedkope" dollars krijgen, maar hun lasten in de dure euro moeten betalen. Voor hen is een stijging van de dollar een welkom verschijnsel...
The 2 major World currencies are the Dollar and the Euro - they are accepted as payment everywhere. With a loss of confidence in the Dollar the Euro went up in value. Now that cracks have appeared in the EU banking system people are losing confidence in the Euro and the trend will go the other way (temporarily).
JazzFlight schreef:NEway,...there seems to be an Australian expert who sees things differently. I wonder what you guys think of this. It all seems so contradictory.
Sweeney, from the Australian Wings Academy.........
1. Ignore the so called "Experts"
2. Ignore anyone from a Flying School talking about a "Pilot Shortage"
Reality is that demand is decreasing - a lot of orders will be cancelled/deferred. The Middle East will take a beating in this crisis as well - just a matter of time IMHO.
6 okt
metrodriver· 6 oktOver orders voor nieuwe kisten gesproken: deze vliegtuigen worden niet allemaal tegelijk afgeleverd. Vaak zit er zo'n lange periode tussen eerste aflevering en de laatste dat de tweede helft van de leveranties de eerste helft gaat vervangen, of die vliegtuigen vervangen een verouderd type van een ander model. Niet elk nieuw besteld vliegtuig levert een nieuwe baan op voor een vlieger.
In het midden oosten, China en India vindt er nog uitgebreide vlootuitbreiding plaats. Echter als de Amerikaanse en Europese economieen tot stilstand komen zal ook daar er de rem op gaan. Dit is al aan het plaatsvinden: Emirates heeft de aannames stop gezet en als ik het goed heb ook Qatar Airways.
In het midden oosten, China en India vindt er nog uitgebreide vlootuitbreiding plaats. Echter als de Amerikaanse en Europese economieen tot stilstand komen zal ook daar er de rem op gaan. Dit is al aan het plaatsvinden: Emirates heeft de aannames stop gezet en als ik het goed heb ook Qatar Airways.
6 okt
Mike5· 6 oktJazzFlight schreef:
Demand for Pilots will Increase, Says Expert.......
.....according to an Australian expert.
Phil Sweeney said the aviation sector had weathered the post 9/11 storm and was making huge advances.....
Sweeney, from the Australian Wings Academy (AWA)
The seminar, titled ‘Pilot Training’ was hosted by GlobalEdu and AWA.
Comparing attending a pilot school with that of enrolling at university, Sweeney pointed out that students only had to study for one year to hold a commercial pilot’s licence and a first job with an average monthly salary of $4,000, compared to spending four years at university and then working for an average pay of $1,800 per month.
De KLM heeft ook een enorm vliegers te kort............... :blabla: Ignore the "expert"! (Zoals al gezegd is!)
@ 19 of 77
De Dollar koers zit een heel stuk ingewikkelder in elkaar. Er zijn zo enorm veel factoren die mee spelen, dat niemand precies begrijpt waarom die stijgt of daalt. Het vertrouwen in de Amerikaanse financiële sector is een heel stuk minder dan het vertrouwen in de Europese sector. De “reddingsplannen” die er nu liggen zijn geen constructieve oplossingen. Een junkie geld geven om zijn dope te kopen zodat hij niet hoeft te stelen, lost het probleem van het stelen tijdelijk op. Het probleem van de junkie lost het alleen niet op. Deze maatregelen zouden juist voor een Dollar daling moeten zorgen.
Grtz Mike5
6 okt